Journal Articles
"The Organizational Voter: Support for New Parties in Young Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming.
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members' vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members' own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members' vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members' own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
"Linguistic Assimilation Does Not Reduce Discrimination Against Immigrants: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany," with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Journal of Experimental Political Science, forthcoming.
Many western liberal democracies have witnessed increased discrimination against immigrants and opposition to multiculturalism. Prior research identifies ethno-linguistic differences between immigrant and native populations as the key source of such bias. Linguistic assimilation has therefore been proposed as an important mechanism to reduce discrimination and mitigate conflict between natives and immigrants. Using large-scale field experiments conducted in 30 cities across Germany – a country with a high influx of immigrants and refugees – we empirically test whether linguistic assimilation reduces discrimination against Muslim immigrants in everyday social interactions. We find that it does not; Muslim immigrants are no less likely to be discriminated against even if they appear to be linguistically assimilated. However, we also find that ethno-linguistic differences alone do not cause bias among natives in a country with a large immigrant population and state policies that encourage multiculturalism.
[PDF]
Many western liberal democracies have witnessed increased discrimination against immigrants and opposition to multiculturalism. Prior research identifies ethno-linguistic differences between immigrant and native populations as the key source of such bias. Linguistic assimilation has therefore been proposed as an important mechanism to reduce discrimination and mitigate conflict between natives and immigrants. Using large-scale field experiments conducted in 30 cities across Germany – a country with a high influx of immigrants and refugees – we empirically test whether linguistic assimilation reduces discrimination against Muslim immigrants in everyday social interactions. We find that it does not; Muslim immigrants are no less likely to be discriminated against even if they appear to be linguistically assimilated. However, we also find that ethno-linguistic differences alone do not cause bias among natives in a country with a large immigrant population and state policies that encourage multiculturalism.
[PDF]
"Incentives for Organizational Participation: A Recruitment Experiment in Mexico," with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin, Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming.
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a "particularistic socialization" effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[PDF] [Link]
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a "particularistic socialization" effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[PDF] [Link]
"Parochialism, Social Norms, and Discrimination Against Immigrants," with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (33), Summer 2019, pp. 16274-16279
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[PDF] [Link]
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[PDF] [Link]
"Fuzzy Sets on Shaky Ground: Parameter Sensitivity and Confirmation Bias in fsQCA," with Chris Krogslund and Donghyun Danny Choi, Political Analysis 23 (1), Winter 2015, pp. 21-41
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[PDF] [Link]
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[PDF] [Link]
Working Papers
Organizational and Partisan Brokerage of Social Benefits: Evidence from Mexico [Revise & Resubmit at World Development]
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
In recent years, several Latin American countries have expanded large scale non-discretionary social benefits. While these benefits have reduced the political manipulation of low-income citizens, discretionary social programs—whose distribution follows opaque criteria and are often allocated by brokers—continue to exist. Using an original survey in Mexico, we explore how citizens, both beneficiaries and non- beneficiaries, experience and perceive access to discretionary social programs. The literature on clientelism emphasizes the distribution of discretionary benefits by party agents in exchange for electoral support. However, a number of studies have found that access to discretionary social benefits can also operate through community associations or interest organizations. We employ a list experiment to detect whether discretionary social benefits are allocated on the basis of partisan campaign support or organizational participation. Our findings reveal that organizational brokerage is at least as important as the much- studied role of partisan machines for access to these benefits.
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
In recent years, several Latin American countries have expanded large scale non-discretionary social benefits. While these benefits have reduced the political manipulation of low-income citizens, discretionary social programs—whose distribution follows opaque criteria and are often allocated by brokers—continue to exist. Using an original survey in Mexico, we explore how citizens, both beneficiaries and non- beneficiaries, experience and perceive access to discretionary social programs. The literature on clientelism emphasizes the distribution of discretionary benefits by party agents in exchange for electoral support. However, a number of studies have found that access to discretionary social benefits can also operate through community associations or interest organizations. We employ a list experiment to detect whether discretionary social benefits are allocated on the basis of partisan campaign support or organizational participation. Our findings reveal that organizational brokerage is at least as important as the much- studied role of partisan machines for access to these benefits.
Temperature and Outgroup Discrimination [Under Review]
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
High temperatures have been linked to aggression in humans and recent literature has established a connection between climate change and violent inter-group conflict. Previous studies have emphasized economic mechanisms in explaining the effect of climatic conditions on conflict. Using data from two large-scale field experiments, we show evidence of a direct causal effect of high temperatures on nonviolent inter-group conflict, proxied by discrimination in helping behavior toward an ethno-religious outgroup. In our experiments, as temperatures rise, individuals faced with a choice to provide help to strangers in every-day interactions disciminate more against ethno-religious minorities. In light of expected increases in the frequency of temperature shocks due to global warming, our findings suggest that inter-group conflict of all forms will become more prevalent in the future.
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
High temperatures have been linked to aggression in humans and recent literature has established a connection between climate change and violent inter-group conflict. Previous studies have emphasized economic mechanisms in explaining the effect of climatic conditions on conflict. Using data from two large-scale field experiments, we show evidence of a direct causal effect of high temperatures on nonviolent inter-group conflict, proxied by discrimination in helping behavior toward an ethno-religious outgroup. In our experiments, as temperatures rise, individuals faced with a choice to provide help to strangers in every-day interactions disciminate more against ethno-religious minorities. In light of expected increases in the frequency of temperature shocks due to global warming, our findings suggest that inter-group conflict of all forms will become more prevalent in the future.
The Hijab Penalty: Feminist Backlash to Muslim Immigration [Under Review]
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Is opposition to Muslim immigration in Western societies driven by perceptions of a cultural threat? Can shared ideas between natives and immigrants mitigate discrimination against immigrants? We hypothesize that natives' behavior toward Muslim immigrants are shaped by the belief that Muslims hold conservative attitudes about women's rights. We test this hypothesis in a large-scale field experiment conducted in 25 cities across Germany, during which 3,797 unknowing bystanders were exposed to brief social encounters with confederates who revealed their ideas regarding gender roles. We find significant discrimination against Muslim women, but this discrimination is eliminated when these women signal that they share progressive gender attitudes held by natives. Through an implicit association test and a follow-up survey among German adults, we further confirm the centrality of ideational stereotypes in structuring opposition to immigration. Our findings have important implications for reducing conflict between native-immigrant communities in the era of increased cross-border migration.
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Is opposition to Muslim immigration in Western societies driven by perceptions of a cultural threat? Can shared ideas between natives and immigrants mitigate discrimination against immigrants? We hypothesize that natives' behavior toward Muslim immigrants are shaped by the belief that Muslims hold conservative attitudes about women's rights. We test this hypothesis in a large-scale field experiment conducted in 25 cities across Germany, during which 3,797 unknowing bystanders were exposed to brief social encounters with confederates who revealed their ideas regarding gender roles. We find significant discrimination against Muslim women, but this discrimination is eliminated when these women signal that they share progressive gender attitudes held by natives. Through an implicit association test and a follow-up survey among German adults, we further confirm the centrality of ideational stereotypes in structuring opposition to immigration. Our findings have important implications for reducing conflict between native-immigrant communities in the era of increased cross-border migration.
The Paradoxical Effects of Combating Corruption on Institutional Trust and Political Engagement: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments [Under Review]
with Nan Zhang
While fighting corruption has become a high priority in many countries around the world, the widespread adoption of anti-corruption measures has yielded few tangible results. This paper asks whether, in failing to promote better governance, efforts to combat corruption may in fact generate negative political consequences. To address this question, we examine natural experiments from Argentina and Costa Rica involving the unprecedented sentencing of two former Presidents on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between these cases and fieldwork on nationally-representative surveys, we show that high-profile efforts to punish corrupt actors paradoxically eroded trust in institutions and produced "resigned citizens" who expressed a lower willingness to vote or join in collective demonstrations. Overall, our findings shed light on an important understudied link between anti-corruption policy and political participation in societies with weak systems of accountability.
with Nan Zhang
While fighting corruption has become a high priority in many countries around the world, the widespread adoption of anti-corruption measures has yielded few tangible results. This paper asks whether, in failing to promote better governance, efforts to combat corruption may in fact generate negative political consequences. To address this question, we examine natural experiments from Argentina and Costa Rica involving the unprecedented sentencing of two former Presidents on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between these cases and fieldwork on nationally-representative surveys, we show that high-profile efforts to punish corrupt actors paradoxically eroded trust in institutions and produced "resigned citizens" who expressed a lower willingness to vote or join in collective demonstrations. Overall, our findings shed light on an important understudied link between anti-corruption policy and political participation in societies with weak systems of accountability.
Does Political Representation Increase Participation? Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Does political representation increase political participation? Analyzing a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a political party uses lotteries to select candidates for national public office, this paper presents new insights into how representation shapes the political participation of underrepresented segments of society. I find that electoral participation in subsequent elections is significantly higher among constituents who have been represented by randomly selected deputies who closely resemble their constituents in terms of their social background and who are part of local organizational networks (embedded representatives). Furthermore, I find evidence that these represented constituents feel more empowered and that the party that provides this 'grassroots' representation is rewarded, receiving significantly more electoral support in the subsequent election and gaining a strategic boost over its electoral competitors. The findings highlight the importance of candidates' and parties' community embeddedness for political mobilization and have important implications for debates about democratic inclusion and representation.
Does political representation increase political participation? Analyzing a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a political party uses lotteries to select candidates for national public office, this paper presents new insights into how representation shapes the political participation of underrepresented segments of society. I find that electoral participation in subsequent elections is significantly higher among constituents who have been represented by randomly selected deputies who closely resemble their constituents in terms of their social background and who are part of local organizational networks (embedded representatives). Furthermore, I find evidence that these represented constituents feel more empowered and that the party that provides this 'grassroots' representation is rewarded, receiving significantly more electoral support in the subsequent election and gaining a strategic boost over its electoral competitors. The findings highlight the importance of candidates' and parties' community embeddedness for political mobilization and have important implications for debates about democratic inclusion and representation.
Manuscripts in Progress
Building a Party Top-Down and Bottom Up: The Case of MORENA in Mexico
Organizing the Vote: Interest Organizations and Party-Voter Linkages in Mexico
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Organizing the Vote: Interest Organizations and Party-Voter Linkages in Mexico
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Selected Work in Progress
Beyond Ethnicity? The Political Construction of Ethnic Identities in Bolivia
Class Revisited: Exploring the Persistence of Class Cleavages in Latin America
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Gender, Religion, and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Petition Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Returns to Office: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Women's Political Participation in Hybrid Regimes (Metaketa V)
with Susan Hyde, Edmund Malesky, Alexander Coppock, Lauren Young, Claire Adida, Leonardo Arriola, Ali Cheema, Asiyati Chiweza, Amanda Clayton, Boniface Dulani, Damir Esenaliev, Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Quynh Hguyen, Elnura Kazakbbaeva, Sarah Khan, Katrina Kosec, Aila Matanock, Cecilia Mo, Shandana Khan Mohmand, Eitan Paul, Soledad Prillamn, Amanda Robinson, Paul Schuler, Markus Taussig, and Mai Truong
Class Revisited: Exploring the Persistence of Class Cleavages in Latin America
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Gender, Religion, and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Petition Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Returns to Office: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Women's Political Participation in Hybrid Regimes (Metaketa V)
with Susan Hyde, Edmund Malesky, Alexander Coppock, Lauren Young, Claire Adida, Leonardo Arriola, Ali Cheema, Asiyati Chiweza, Amanda Clayton, Boniface Dulani, Damir Esenaliev, Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Quynh Hguyen, Elnura Kazakbbaeva, Sarah Khan, Katrina Kosec, Aila Matanock, Cecilia Mo, Shandana Khan Mohmand, Eitan Paul, Soledad Prillamn, Amanda Robinson, Paul Schuler, Markus Taussig, and Mai Truong
Other Publications
"Morales: Continuity and Change," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Spring 2015, pp. 77-79.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.