Journal Articles
"The Paradoxical Effects of Combating Corruption on Institutional Trust and Political Engagement: Evidence from Latin America," with Nan Zhang, Political Science Research & Methods, forthcoming.
While a number of high-level figures around the world have been prosecuted and even jailed for corruption in recent years, we know little about how such anticorruption efforts shape public opinion and patterns of political engagement. To address this question, we examine evidence from Argentina and Costa Rica involving the unprecedented sentencing of two former Presidents on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between these cases and fieldwork on nationally representative surveys, we find that citizens interviewed in the aftermath of these events expressed lower trust in institutions and were less willing to vote or join in collective demonstrations. Overall, these findings suggest that high-profile efforts to punish corrupt actors may have similar effects as political scandals in shaping citizens' relationship to the political system.
[PDF] [Link]
While a number of high-level figures around the world have been prosecuted and even jailed for corruption in recent years, we know little about how such anticorruption efforts shape public opinion and patterns of political engagement. To address this question, we examine evidence from Argentina and Costa Rica involving the unprecedented sentencing of two former Presidents on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between these cases and fieldwork on nationally representative surveys, we find that citizens interviewed in the aftermath of these events expressed lower trust in institutions and were less willing to vote or join in collective demonstrations. Overall, these findings suggest that high-profile efforts to punish corrupt actors may have similar effects as political scandals in shaping citizens' relationship to the political system.
[PDF] [Link]
"Does Political Representation Increase Participation? Evidence from Party Candidate Lotteries in Mexico," American Political Science Review (2023), 117 (2): 537-556.
How does representation by politicians from specific communities influence these communities' political participation? Analyzing a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a party uses lotteries to select candidates for public office, this paper presents new insights into how representation shapes the political participation of underrepresented segments of society. I find that participation in subsequent elections is significantly higher among constituents who have been represented by randomly selected legislators with a similar social background who are part of local organizational networks (embedded representatives). Furthermore, I show that these represented constituents feel more empowered, and that the party that provides this 'grassroots' representation is rewarded with more support in the subsequent election. The findings highlight the importance of community embeddedness for political mobilization and have important implications for debates about democratic inclusion and representation.
[PDF] [Link]
How does representation by politicians from specific communities influence these communities' political participation? Analyzing a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a party uses lotteries to select candidates for public office, this paper presents new insights into how representation shapes the political participation of underrepresented segments of society. I find that participation in subsequent elections is significantly higher among constituents who have been represented by randomly selected legislators with a similar social background who are part of local organizational networks (embedded representatives). Furthermore, I show that these represented constituents feel more empowered, and that the party that provides this 'grassroots' representation is rewarded with more support in the subsequent election. The findings highlight the importance of community embeddedness for political mobilization and have important implications for debates about democratic inclusion and representation.
[PDF] [Link]
"The Hijab Penalty: Feminist Backlash to Muslim Immigration", with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming.
Why do native Europeans discriminate against Muslim immigrants? Can shared ideas between natives and immigrants reduce discrimination? We hypothesize that natives' bias against Muslim immigrants is shaped by the belief that Muslims hold conservative attitudes about women's rights and this ideational basis for discrimination is more pronounced among native women. We test this hypothesis in a large-scale field experiment conducted in 25 cities across Germany, during which 3,797 unknowing bystanders were exposed to brief social encounters with confederates who revealed their ideas regarding gender roles. We find significant discrimination against Muslim women, but this discrimination is eliminated when Muslim women signal that they hold progressive gender attitudes. Through an implicit association test and a follow-up survey among German adults, we further confirm the centrality of ideational stereotypes in structuring opposition to Muslims. Our findings have important implications for reducing conflict between native-immigrant communities in an era of increased cross-border migration.
[PDF] [Link]
Why do native Europeans discriminate against Muslim immigrants? Can shared ideas between natives and immigrants reduce discrimination? We hypothesize that natives' bias against Muslim immigrants is shaped by the belief that Muslims hold conservative attitudes about women's rights and this ideational basis for discrimination is more pronounced among native women. We test this hypothesis in a large-scale field experiment conducted in 25 cities across Germany, during which 3,797 unknowing bystanders were exposed to brief social encounters with confederates who revealed their ideas regarding gender roles. We find significant discrimination against Muslim women, but this discrimination is eliminated when Muslim women signal that they hold progressive gender attitudes. Through an implicit association test and a follow-up survey among German adults, we further confirm the centrality of ideational stereotypes in structuring opposition to Muslims. Our findings have important implications for reducing conflict between native-immigrant communities in an era of increased cross-border migration.
[PDF] [Link]
"Temperature and Outgroup Discrimination", with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Political Science Research and Methods (2023), 11 (1): 198-206.
High temperatures have been linked to aggression and different forms of conflict in humans. We consider whether exposure to heat waves increases discriminatory behavior toward outgroups. Using data from two large-scale field experiments in Germany, we find a direct causal effect of exposure to heat shocks on discrimination in helping behavior. As temperature rises, German natives faced with a choice to provide help to strangers in every-day interactions help Muslim immigrants less than they do other German natives, while help rates toward natives are unaffected by temperature. This finding suggests that there may be a physiological basis for discriminatory behavior toward outgroups.
[PDF] [Link]
High temperatures have been linked to aggression and different forms of conflict in humans. We consider whether exposure to heat waves increases discriminatory behavior toward outgroups. Using data from two large-scale field experiments in Germany, we find a direct causal effect of exposure to heat shocks on discrimination in helping behavior. As temperature rises, German natives faced with a choice to provide help to strangers in every-day interactions help Muslim immigrants less than they do other German natives, while help rates toward natives are unaffected by temperature. This finding suggests that there may be a physiological basis for discriminatory behavior toward outgroups.
[PDF] [Link]
"The Organizational Voter: Support for New Parties in Young Democracies," American Journal of Political Science (2021), 65 (3): 634-651.
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members' vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members' own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
[PDF] [Link]
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members' vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members' own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
[PDF] [Link]
"Linguistic Assimilation Does Not Reduce Discrimination Against Immigrants: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany," with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Journal of Experimental Political Science (2021), 8 (3): 235-246.
Many western liberal democracies have witnessed increased discrimination against immigrants and opposition to multiculturalism. Prior research identifies ethno-linguistic differences between immigrant and native populations as the key source of such bias. Linguistic assimilation has therefore been proposed as an important mechanism to reduce discrimination and mitigate conflict between natives and immigrants. Using large-scale field experiments conducted in 30 cities across Germany – a country with a high influx of immigrants and refugees – we empirically test whether linguistic assimilation reduces discrimination against Muslim immigrants in everyday social interactions. We find that it does not; Muslim immigrants are no less likely to be discriminated against even if they appear to be linguistically assimilated. However, we also find that ethno-linguistic differences alone do not cause bias among natives in a country with a large immigrant population and state policies that encourage multiculturalism.
[PDF] [Link]
Many western liberal democracies have witnessed increased discrimination against immigrants and opposition to multiculturalism. Prior research identifies ethno-linguistic differences between immigrant and native populations as the key source of such bias. Linguistic assimilation has therefore been proposed as an important mechanism to reduce discrimination and mitigate conflict between natives and immigrants. Using large-scale field experiments conducted in 30 cities across Germany – a country with a high influx of immigrants and refugees – we empirically test whether linguistic assimilation reduces discrimination against Muslim immigrants in everyday social interactions. We find that it does not; Muslim immigrants are no less likely to be discriminated against even if they appear to be linguistically assimilated. However, we also find that ethno-linguistic differences alone do not cause bias among natives in a country with a large immigrant population and state policies that encourage multiculturalism.
[PDF] [Link]
"Incentives for Organizational Participation: A Recruitment Experiment in Mexico," with Brian Palmer-Rubin and Candelaria Garay, Comparative Political Studies (2021), 54 (1): 110-143.
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a "particularistic socialization" effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[PDF] [Link]
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a "particularistic socialization" effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[PDF] [Link]
"Organizational and Partisan Brokerage of Social Benefits: Social Policy Linkages in Mexico", with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin, World Development (2020), 136 (105103): 1-12.
The expansion of large-scale non-discretionary social policy has been one of the most important policy innovations in Latin America in recent decades. While these benefits have reduced the political manipulation of low-income citizens, discretionary social programs—whose distribution follows opaque criteria and are often allocated according to political considerations—continue to exist. Employing an original survey in Mexico, we explore how citizens, both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, experience and perceive access to discretionary social programs. While the literature on clientelism emphasizes the distribution of discretionary benefits by party agents in exchange for electoral support, a number of recent studies have found that access to discretionary social benefits can also operate through community associations or interest organizations. We conducted a list experiment in our survey to detect whether in the experience or perception of the respondent social benefits are allocated on the basis of partisan campaign support or organizational participation. Our findings reveal that organizational brokerage is at least as important as the much-studied role of party-mediated clientelism for access to discretionary benefits.
[PDF] [Link]
The expansion of large-scale non-discretionary social policy has been one of the most important policy innovations in Latin America in recent decades. While these benefits have reduced the political manipulation of low-income citizens, discretionary social programs—whose distribution follows opaque criteria and are often allocated according to political considerations—continue to exist. Employing an original survey in Mexico, we explore how citizens, both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, experience and perceive access to discretionary social programs. While the literature on clientelism emphasizes the distribution of discretionary benefits by party agents in exchange for electoral support, a number of recent studies have found that access to discretionary social benefits can also operate through community associations or interest organizations. We conducted a list experiment in our survey to detect whether in the experience or perception of the respondent social benefits are allocated on the basis of partisan campaign support or organizational participation. Our findings reveal that organizational brokerage is at least as important as the much-studied role of party-mediated clientelism for access to discretionary benefits.
[PDF] [Link]
"Parochialism, Social Norms, and Discrimination Against Immigrants," with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019), 116 (33): 16274-16279.
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[PDF] [Link]
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[PDF] [Link]
"Fuzzy Sets on Shaky Ground: Parameter Sensitivity and Confirmation Bias in fsQCA," with Chris Krogslund and Donghyun Danny Choi, Political Analysis (2015), 23 (1): 21-41.
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[PDF] [Link]
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[PDF] [Link]
Working Papers
Building the Party on the Ground: The Role of Access to Public Office for Party Growth [Conditionally Accepted at the Journal of Politics]
How is the growth and institutionalization of political parties shaped by access to public office? In this paper, I analyze a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a political party used a lottery system to select candidates for national public office, and present new insights into how access to elected office shapes the development of new parties. I find that the party was able to build local party networks by gaining access to office (through elected legislators) that subsequently mobilized new voters for the party. I show that the party was able to institutionalize more successfully and increase its membership base in localities that randomly received access to public office through an elected legislator from the same locality. The findings highlight the importance of access to state resources for the success of new parties and have important implications for debates about democratic representation and accountability.
Strengthening Political Parties: Experiences of Political Participation and Efficacy
with Christopher L. Carter
In representative democracies, political parties play a central role in linking voters to the state. Yet, in many young democracies, parties often fail to fulfill this key responsibility, providing neither accountability for poor politician performance nor effective and accurate representation of citizens' preferences. The inability of parties to form strong and enduring connections with voters provides a fertile ground for the emergence of non-democratic ideas and politicians. Using evidence from the case of Ecuador, a country with an exceptionally weak party system, this paper examines when otherwise weak parties form enduring ties with voters. We first highlight two central challenges to parties in Ecuador and beyond: low trust in and engagement with the political system and control of parties by entrenched, personalistic leaders, or \textit{caudillos}. Drawing on evidence from a field experiment with Ecuadorian voters and a well-known political party, we find that parties can address both challenges by providing voters an opportunity to participate in defining the party's platform. Such participation increases voters' sense of efficacy, their political interest, and their support and trust in the political party and its leaders. The results shed light on a relatively low-cost way that discredited political institutions might be strengthened to prevent democratic erosion.
How is the growth and institutionalization of political parties shaped by access to public office? In this paper, I analyze a natural experiment from Mexico, in which a political party used a lottery system to select candidates for national public office, and present new insights into how access to elected office shapes the development of new parties. I find that the party was able to build local party networks by gaining access to office (through elected legislators) that subsequently mobilized new voters for the party. I show that the party was able to institutionalize more successfully and increase its membership base in localities that randomly received access to public office through an elected legislator from the same locality. The findings highlight the importance of access to state resources for the success of new parties and have important implications for debates about democratic representation and accountability.
Strengthening Political Parties: Experiences of Political Participation and Efficacy
with Christopher L. Carter
In representative democracies, political parties play a central role in linking voters to the state. Yet, in many young democracies, parties often fail to fulfill this key responsibility, providing neither accountability for poor politician performance nor effective and accurate representation of citizens' preferences. The inability of parties to form strong and enduring connections with voters provides a fertile ground for the emergence of non-democratic ideas and politicians. Using evidence from the case of Ecuador, a country with an exceptionally weak party system, this paper examines when otherwise weak parties form enduring ties with voters. We first highlight two central challenges to parties in Ecuador and beyond: low trust in and engagement with the political system and control of parties by entrenched, personalistic leaders, or \textit{caudillos}. Drawing on evidence from a field experiment with Ecuadorian voters and a well-known political party, we find that parties can address both challenges by providing voters an opportunity to participate in defining the party's platform. Such participation increases voters' sense of efficacy, their political interest, and their support and trust in the political party and its leaders. The results shed light on a relatively low-cost way that discredited political institutions might be strengthened to prevent democratic erosion.
Selected Work in Progress
Beyond Ethnicity? The Political Construction of Ethnic Identities in Bolivia
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Mass Politics 2.0: Organizations and Political Participation in Neoliberal Latin America
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Overcoming Barriers: The Career Advancement of Female Candidates in Party Candidate Lotteries in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Women's Political Participation in Hybrid Regimes (Metaketa V)
with Susan Hyde, Edmund Malesky, Alexander Coppock, Lauren Young, Claire Adida, Leonardo Arriola, Ali Cheema, Asiyati Chiweza, Amanda Clayton, Boniface Dulani, Damir Esenaliev, Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Quynh Hguyen, Elnura Kazakbbaeva, Sarah Khan, Katrina Kosec, Aila Matanock, Cecilia Mo, Shandana Khan Mohmand, Eitan Paul, Soledad Prillamn, Amanda Robinson, Paul Schuler, Markus Taussig, and Mai Truong
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Mass Politics 2.0: Organizations and Political Participation in Neoliberal Latin America
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Overcoming Barriers: The Career Advancement of Female Candidates in Party Candidate Lotteries in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Women's Political Participation in Hybrid Regimes (Metaketa V)
with Susan Hyde, Edmund Malesky, Alexander Coppock, Lauren Young, Claire Adida, Leonardo Arriola, Ali Cheema, Asiyati Chiweza, Amanda Clayton, Boniface Dulani, Damir Esenaliev, Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Quynh Hguyen, Elnura Kazakbbaeva, Sarah Khan, Katrina Kosec, Aila Matanock, Cecilia Mo, Shandana Khan Mohmand, Eitan Paul, Soledad Prillamn, Amanda Robinson, Paul Schuler, Markus Taussig, and Mai Truong
Other Publications
"Morales: Continuity and Change," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Spring 2015, pp. 77-79.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.