Journal Articles
"Parochialism, Social Norms, and Discrimination Against Immigrants," with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (33), Summer 2019, pp. 16274-16279.
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[link to the article]
"Fuzzy Sets on Shaky Ground: Parameter Sensitivity and Confirmation Bias in fsQCA," with Chris Krogslund and Donghyun Danny Choi, Political Analysis 23 (1), Winter 2015, pp. 21-41.
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[link to the article]
Ingroup bias and outgroup prejudice are pervasive features of human behavior, motivating various forms of discrimination and conflict. In an era of increased cross-border migration, these tendencies exacerbate intergroup conflict between native populations and immigrant groups, raising the question of how conflict can be overcome. We address this question through a large-scale field intervention conducted in 28 cities across three German states, designed to measure assistance provided to immigrants during everyday social interactions. This randomized trial found that cultural integration signaled through shared social norms mitigates—but does not eliminate—bias against immigrants driven by perceptions of religious differences. Our results suggest that eliminating or suppressing ascriptive (e.g., ethnic) differences is not a necessary path to conflict reduction in multicultural societies; rather, achieving a shared understanding of civic behavior can form the basis of cooperation.
[link to the article]
"Fuzzy Sets on Shaky Ground: Parameter Sensitivity and Confirmation Bias in fsQCA," with Chris Krogslund and Donghyun Danny Choi, Political Analysis 23 (1), Winter 2015, pp. 21-41.
Scholars have increasingly turned to fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to conduct small- and medium-N studies, arguing that it combines the most desired elements of variable-oriented and case-oriented research. This article demonstrates, however, that fsQCA is an extraordinarily sensitive method whose results are worryingly susceptible to minor parametric and model specification changes. We make two specific claims. First, the causal conditions identified by fsQCA as being sufficient for an outcome to occur are highly contingent upon the values of several key parameters selected by the user. Second, fsQCA results are subject to marked confirmation bias. Given its tendency toward finding complex connections between variables, the method is highly likely to identify as sufficient for an outcome causal combinations containing even randomly generated variables. To support these arguments, we replicate three articles utilizing fsQCA and conduct sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of small changes in parameter values and the method's built-in confirmation bias on the overall conclusions about sufficient conditions.
[link to the article]
Working Papers
Organizational and Partisan Brokerage of Social Benefits: Evidence from Mexico [under review]
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a “particularistic socialization” effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[paper available upon request]
The Organizational Voter: Support for New Parties in Young Democracies [Revise & Resubmit at the American Journal of Political Science]
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members’ vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members’ own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
[link to the paper]
The Paradoxical Effects of Combating Corruption on Institutional Trust and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Natural Experiment [Under Review]
with Nan Zhang
While fighting corruption has become a high priority in many countries around the world, the widespread adoption of anti-corruption measures has yielded few tangible results. This paper ask whether, in failing to promote better governance, efforts to combat corruption may in fact generate negative political consequences. To address this question, we examine a natural experiment involving the sentencing of former Argentine President Menem on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between Menem’s case and fieldwork on a nationally-representative survey, we show that the announcement of Menem’s sentence paradoxically eroded public trust in institutions and produced “resigned citizens” who expressed reduced interest in politics, lower willingness to participate in collective demonstrations, and greater intention to cast spoiled ballots and to abstain from voting. Overall, our findings shed light on an important understudied link between anti-corruption policy and political participation in chronically misgoverned societies.
[link to the paper]
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
This paper presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations in democracies with weak institutions democracy. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers that present a new local interest organization to them, asking whether they would like to receive information about joining the organization. These posters contain one of four randomly selected appeals to encourage recruitment. We find strong evidence in favor of selective material incentives as a recruitment appeal. We further analyze response rates by prior organizational contact, finding evidence for a “particularistic socialization” effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits and less response to purposive incentives. This effect is most pronounced among higher-income respondents, counter existing theories suggesting higher demand for patronage among the poor. Our findings show that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies and make them more receptive to patronage appeals.
[paper available upon request]
The Organizational Voter: Support for New Parties in Young Democracies [Revise & Resubmit at the American Journal of Political Science]
How do voters form attachments to new political parties? This article contends that locally organized, participant-based societal organizations—such as neighborhood associations, informal sector unions, and indigenous movements—provide a critical source of mass support. Drawing on social identity and self-categorization theory, I argue that endorsements of new parties by such organizations sway organization members’ vote preferences and socialize them into identifying with the party. A discrete choice experiment, presenting voters in Bolivia with campaign posters, demonstrates that organizational endorsements are highly effective in mobilizing voters, especially when voters face a new party. Endorsements can even counteract policy and ethnic differences between candidates and voters and sway not only organization members’ own vote preferences but also the preferences of people in their larger social network. The findings suggest an important, understudied route to electoral support and partisan identities in new democracies and have important implications for research on political accountability.
[link to the paper]
The Paradoxical Effects of Combating Corruption on Institutional Trust and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Natural Experiment [Under Review]
with Nan Zhang
While fighting corruption has become a high priority in many countries around the world, the widespread adoption of anti-corruption measures has yielded few tangible results. This paper ask whether, in failing to promote better governance, efforts to combat corruption may in fact generate negative political consequences. To address this question, we examine a natural experiment involving the sentencing of former Argentine President Menem on corruption charges. Exploiting the coincidence in timing between Menem’s case and fieldwork on a nationally-representative survey, we show that the announcement of Menem’s sentence paradoxically eroded public trust in institutions and produced “resigned citizens” who expressed reduced interest in politics, lower willingness to participate in collective demonstrations, and greater intention to cast spoiled ballots and to abstain from voting. Overall, our findings shed light on an important understudied link between anti-corruption policy and political participation in chronically misgoverned societies.
[link to the paper]
Manuscripts in Progress
Building a Party Top-Down and Bottom Up: The Case of MORENA in Mexico
Measuring Feminist Opposition to Political Islam: Evidence from Social Encounters in the Field
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Organizing the Vote: Interest Organizations and Party-Voter Linkages in Mexico
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Representation and Party Building: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Temperature and Ingroup Bias
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Measuring Feminist Opposition to Political Islam: Evidence from Social Encounters in the Field
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Organizing the Vote: Interest Organizations and Party-Voter Linkages in Mexico
with Candelaria Garay and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Representation and Party Building: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Temperature and Ingroup Bias
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Selected Work in Progress
Beyond Ethnicity? The Political Construction of Ethnic Identities in Bolivia
Class Revisited: Exploring the Persistence of Class Cleavages in Latin America
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Gender, Religion, and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Petition Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Identity, Language, and Discrimination: Evidence from a Field Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Representation and Public Goods: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Mexico
Returns to Office: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Class Revisited: Exploring the Persistence of Class Cleavages in Latin America
From Sugar to Representation: The Rise of Programmatic Politics in Clientelist Systems
Gender, Religion, and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Petition Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Identity, Language, and Discrimination: Evidence from a Field Experiment
with Donghyun Danny Choi and Nicholas Sambanis
Representation and Public Goods: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Mexico
Returns to Office: Evidence from a Party Candidate Lottery in Mexico
Rupture of Representation? Political Elite Survival After Party System Collapse
with Mariana Giusti-Rodriguez
Other Publications
"Morales: Continuity and Change," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Spring 2015, pp. 77-79.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.
"Inequality - A Challenge for Prosperity," Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2012, pp. 7-9.
"Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly," Journal of International Service (20), 2011, pp. 85-107.